Witold St.Michałowski
PRESIDENT
Polish Pipeliners Association
tel./fax (022) 872-04-30,789-61-08
e-mail:psbr@polbox.pl
BALTIC SILK ROAD
Warszawa 1999-11-20
For many centuries an area between The Baltic Sea and The Black Sea was a geopolitical unity as Kingdom of Poland. The fizjographic, economic, climatic comunication and combine civilization factors has given a prosperity for this country of many nations prosperity.
We have to consider that territory of Poland for millenium was the land bridge between East and West. An ocean of steppes between Huang Ho river and The Great Wall. ---
From very ancient time it has been noted that routes of barbarian invaders such as Huns,Mongols,Tatars and Russians in history of Europe were soon or later converted in routes of caravan trades.
The old trade routes connected Norymberga,Kraków,Lviv Kiev,steppes on the shore of Black See and the craddle of european civilization-Caucasuss.The ancestors of many Polish families have came as merchands from Armenia and Georgia on these routes.
The conqueror of Turks in the Battle of Viena (1683) Polish king Jan III Sobieski and the whole polish noblees class-szlachta followed the way of dressing and armoring as a nobless in Persia.The polish demokracy in which the kings were elected by SEJM the PARLIAMENT formed the political system resulted in establishment of one of the biggest kingdom in the history of Europe. RZECZPOSPOLITA POLSKA peacefully and successfully uniting the Middle and East Europe,for over four hundred years.
Europe was forced to unite under Romans, Karol the Great, Vatican, Napoleon, Hitler, Bolsheviks, Marshal Plan. At the moment the biurokrats from Brussels are trying to do the same.Their efforts will be judged by history.
The political wisdom and farseeing of the Georgia president Edvard Shevardnadze and his efforts for a revitalization of the famous SILK ROAD will give a new shape for the traditional ties and a very fruitfull cooperation.with mutual benefit also for our countries
At the beginning of XXI century extension of historical SILK ROAD up to the Baltic See, on the beginning of XXI century will have a shape of the ODESSA-BRODY-GDAŃSK pipeline.
The pipeline for transporting of Caspian oil to the Baltic See area and to the European Union countries will give also an opportunity for an energy independence for the Ukraine.
Such independence for this country means to be or not to be for a sovereignity of the Ukraine.The construction of this pipeline is under way. It will help in maintaining an energy balance, and supporting this country fragile economy
Despite the strong opposition from polish peoples RAO GAZPROM was able to sign the contract for laying 52" JAMAŁ-EUROPE gasline crossing Poland. Now GAZPROM can close down all the valves on the pipelines exporting gas to West Europe through the ukrainian territory. Almost all ukrainian energetic sector depends on a natural gas imported from Russia. Cut down of it's supply can bring Kiev to it's knees.
The pipeline ODESSA BRODY can be an energetical backbone of Ukraine.
For totally independent Ukraine of course.
But Russia without Ukraine, and free from a colonializm suppremacy of the whole Caucasus,Sibir,Kazachstan and another ex soviet countries will never be dangerous to her neighbours from the south,west and nord.
Considering the result of Stanbul Summit on Tsetshen issues, a notice in Churchill memories that an agreements signed by Russian goverments are not worth the scrape of paper on which they were concluded is still actual.
The lessons of bloodshed under which the turan-slavonic empire indoctrinated on the same way as the communist did created another genocid has been forget..
The events on the North Caucasus show that a spirit of blood thirsty devil doesn t die for ever.He will revue if pipelines on teritory of Ukraina and Transcaucasus Republic transporting Caspian oil will be under Kreml control..
If we draw the line between Baku(Azerbajdian ) and Leuna rafinery (Germany ) it will pass through the south of Poland.. The cost of oil transport on this route, compared with the cost of using oil tankers sailing the Mediterrannean See and surrounding the Iberian penisula will be smaller for about 10$ per each ton.
AZERI LIGHT oil has a very good quality in comparison with a heavy oil blended as URAL and oil from West Sibir.The benefit for a client is another 15% of the price.
During last ten years the name of TENGIZ oil fields (100 km. south of Kulsary in Kazachstan) became very well now all over the world. At the beginning of the forthcoming century the output of oil from Caspian Basin may reach 120 to 170 MTA (Milion Tons Annually ). Ten times as much as Poland uses right now. New red spot had emerged on the World Oil Resources Map. The race for the best position in forthcoming negotiations of the right of the access to new Eldorado has just begun. The winner will be the one who will controll the transport routes of the "black gold" and oil terminals ).
This game is much more interesting than ones play on computers . Chevron, Mobil, Unocal, British Petrol, and Turkey, Iran, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Middle Asian previous soviet republic are involved.. While playing "pipeline poker" they have to keep in mind that Russia still has military bases located near the Baku-Supsa pipeline.It is a real danger .
The whole world has to help urgently president E.Shevardnadze to free his country from occupant forces.
Soviet "liberators" whidraw from Poland Red Army 44 years after II World War was over. A few years ago the consulting firm Brown & Root prepared a study ordered by " Caspian Petroleum Consortium", in which Russia have 25% of shares. They suggested that the best sollutions is to transport "black gold" from Tengiz fields by partly existing 48" pipeline along the north shore of the Caspian Sea through Atytau, Komsomolsk to Grozny. This pipeline should meet in Grozny with 24" pipeline Baku-Tihoreck-Novorosyjsk..It was planned that transport capacity would be 60 MTA. For the 40 years of explatation, if we assume the price of transport tariff on the Tengiz-Novorosyjsk sector is approximatelly 10$ per ton. Russian expected about 24 mld. USD of income.
Every player of a "pipeline poker" is aware of the trouble which mammoth oil tankers have while crossing the Dardanell and Bosphorus Straits. Many accidents which have taken place ,on this water route, in recent years connected with a threat of an ecological disaster which can directly affect world treasure cultural heritage in Stambul caused Turkey to demand a drastic increase of payment from shipowners. That is the reason why pragmatic Americans are opting toward a different sollution.Proposal for another oil route has been done. This route is: Tengiz-Aktau ( Turkmenistan ) sub-sea pipeline to Baku- Kura river valley and through the valley between mountain ranges Deniz and Mescit to Erzincan ( Turkey ) and along the high voltage line to the Yumur-Talik terminal near Ceyhan in north east part of the Mediterranean Sea.
By the end of a last decade this termina designed to serve the pipeline system ITP. ( Iran-Turkey pipeline ) was upgraded to the reloading capacity 80 MTA. It is located 2050 km. from the Tengiz . The cost of a last section of the 30" Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline including the pump stations was estimated for about 1,2 mld. USD,
Above pipeline route goes through semi-desert flatland of east Turkey habitated by the Kurdish minority. Even before bulldozers started their engines for fight of way preparation goverment in Ankara realized that the cost of maintaining the few comando brigades in the region, in order to protect this investment, will have a drastic influence on an income gained from transfer tariff. That is a reason why occured change of a pipeline route is After leaving Georgia it will be laid on the distance of 1500 km. along the shore of the
Black Sea in a western direction to Samsun. From Samsun it will head directly to the south, evading kurdish territory. It would cost much more, but finally would be save. This pipeline is designed to pump an oil in both directions.Together with the Odessa-Brody pipeline it would become the shortest way of transporting oil from Middle East countries to Europe.
China also wants to participate in Caspian Poker. In order to obtain 70 MTA from Tengiz field, want the oil to be delivered to Sinkyang border. It's a real chance that pipeline will be laid along ancient Silk Road passing by Urumchi and Turfan oasis. The cost of this pipeline that would go through Syr-Daria valley, Uzbekistan and the Tien-Shan mountains. would exceed 8 miliard USD. Right now Kazakhstan can't afford to invest such a big money.
China decided sing an agreement on the swap basis with Iran for delivery of 50 MTA About 40 milion tons of Caspian crude will be delivered to north Iranian rafineries by British Petrol.
This is the way how international oil companies are avoiding the restriction that prohibits any investments in Iran ( d'Amato amendment).
Ukrainian oil terminal and tank farm Pivdennyj near of Odessa is under construction.
The tanker bridge connecting Georgian terminal in Supsa with Pivdennyj should came to reality very soon.
Recent events in North Caucasus shows that all pipelines from Caspian Basin to terminal in Novorosyjsk will be unsafe.. Russia had no intention of paying for transit tariff for oil transported through Tschechen territory. Such payment would be a danger exception for Moscow, because such tariff can be demanded by Kalmykia, Tataria or Dagestan.And later or sooner will be demanded. The right to collect transit fee is a sign of sovereignity.
Four years ago the war. has started when president Dudajew demanded from Russia payment for transit the gas transported in 52" pipeline Mozdok-Wladykawkaz and transit fee for oil pumped in 1411 km.pipeline Baku-Grozny-Tikhoreck.Now,the both rafineries in Grozny,oil installation totally has been damaged by bomb and rockets.Not only for experts is obvious that Moscou decided abandon for ever traditional route of export Caspian oil to Russia .
The new 1,5 bilion USD pipeline Tengiz -Novorosyjsk is under construction by french-russian joint venture STARSTROY .The 767 km.Tengiz-Astrachań pipeline will be ready up to the end of 2000. In progress of works is deeply interest ,oligarch B.Berezowsky ŁUKOIL and his supporters in Kremlin including ex-premier Czernomyrdin.
All they are confident that the route of the brand new pipeline passing Kalmykia and Stawropolski Kraj has been chose properly. But no one ask almost 40 milion musliman living in Russia ,about his opinion on genocid at North Caucasus
The future castomers of oil from Tengiz field should keep in mind that if they will transport by russian nets of pipelines additional 900 km. of new pipelines to Samara on cost about 1 bilion USD would have to be buildt in order to reach polish border.
Now, Russia exports to Poland and Germany oil "URAL" highly contaminated and with not stable and mixed chemical composity. This is a main reason why is 15% cheaper than for example AZERI LIGHT. If we consider the technical conditions of Russian thousend kilometres of pipelines and qualifications of the oil personnel in this country we can be almost sure that this Caspian oil from Tengiz will be mixed or blended with URAL
In addition according to the Russian vice premier Yuri Maslukow. In two, three years time Russia can shift from oil exporter to an oil importer.
Russia with it's cost of obtaining oil barrel at 12,75 USD. often in the extremely severe Siberian conditions is very probably will stop beeing an oil exporter soon.
We have to mention that World Bank experts when they considered cost for drilling of gas in Yamal pennisula and cost of construction of a pipeline in permafrost advised Moscow to buy gas in Kazakchstan.
It is the most probable that Russia as an oil importer will sign contracts with firms drilling for oil on the territory of former Soviet Republics of Central Asia and Caspian Basin.
The most important issue for newly establish Nafta Polska should be a simulation of a delivery of an oil to Poland in case when both lines of DRUŻBA PIPELINE will dry out.
If we consider unpredictability of Moscow ruling elite it can happend very soon.
There is no doubt that ine nearest future Poland should get ready to swich from east (from Russia) direction of oil delivery to the south-west direction (from Ukraina).
In Poland has been discusing a construction of a new medium size rafinery located close to Tarnobrzeg with a capacity of 7 MTA. This rafinery located not far away from a pipeline Odessa-Brody-Gdańsk will guarantee a possibility to fill the demand gap for an oil products in south of Poland. The cost of this investment "on green grass" reduced by value of existing infrastructure ( closed sulfur mine ) can pay back in 4 - 5 years.
At the begining of next ceuntry German rafineries in Leuna and Schwedt will be highly interested in obtaining 12 MTA of Caspian oil.Polish existing rafineries in Płock and Gdańsk very similar quantity.The price of this oil will have no competitors in Europe.Ukrainians knew well what they were doing while assuming capacity of ODESSA BRODY pipeline on 40 MTA.Most of 670 km. pipeline has been done. Credits needed were given by European Bank of Cooperation and Development in sum of 180 mln. USD. 1.5 mln. USD was spend on feasibility study. Even Brasil was interested in possibility of obtaining oil from polish North Harbour Terminal near Gdańsk
Recently the works on pipeline has been interrupted. Ukrainian oposition seeks in this works of Moscow. A serious delay also occured on construction of terminal close to Odessa with a planned reload capacity of 70 MTA.
The distance from Odessa to Gdańsk is only 1465 km. Pipeline should cross Polish border near Włodawa and after a 130 km along left bank of Bug river reach tank farm in Adamowo-Zastawa and DRUŻBA pipeline on Biełorussia border.
The experts from Baku,the best in the former Soviet Union,have predicted present Rusian problems with an oil and a possibility of closing down the DRUŻBA pipeline.
There is now a possibility of using this pipeline for Caspian oil
The distance from Tengiz oil fields to Leuna rafinery (Germany)
-via Atyrau-Tikhoreck-Novorossyjsk-Bosfor-Wilhemshaven- is.................... 9310 km
-via Baku-Supsa-Jużnyj-Brody-Płock-Schwedt-Leuna is............................4700 km.
The gentelmen about facts do not discuss!!.
The moment in which Caspian oil will reach the Baltic Sea will be the milestone of an effective cooperation in XXI century for Poland,Ukraine,Georgia and all independent countries along the New Oil Silk Road
Witold Stanisław
Michałowski
Opracowania
